Where the market is wrong on Leyton Orient v Arsenal U21
Leyton Orient meet Arsenal U21 in the EFL Trophy group south - 6 at Brisbane Road, London.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 43%. Attacking output favors Leyton Orient on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Leyton Orient arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Arsenal U21, L 2-3 v Wycombe, L 1-3 v Bradford, D 1-1 @ Luton.
Arsenal U21 are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Leyton Orient, L 1-4 v Chelsea U21, D 2-2 @ Brighton U21, D 1-1 v Crystal Palace U21.
The market prices LEY at 59% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
