Where the market is wrong on Esenler Erokspor v Kayserispor
Esenler Erokspor meet Kayserispor in the 1. Lig regular season - 6 at Esenler Stadium, Istanbul.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 50%. Attacking output favors Esenler Erokspor on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Esenler Erokspor arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Kayserispor, D 0-0 @ Bodrum FK, L 0-1 v Iğdır FK, D 1-1 @ Ümraniyespor.
Kayserispor are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Esenler Erokspor, D 1-1 @ Fatih Karagümrük, L 1-2 v Bursaspor, W 1-0 @ Iğdır FK.
The market prices ESE at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
