Defensor Sporting v Cerro

Defensor Sporting meet Cerro in the Primera División - Apertura torneo intermedio - 7 at Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% DEF, 37% draw, 26% CER.

The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Defensor Sporting, 40% against 30%. Attacking output favors Defensor Sporting on expected goals, 0.7 to 0.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 16%, over 2.5 goals around 10%. Draw no bet leans Defensor Sporting at 58%; double chance reads Defensor Sporting or draw 74%, Cerro or draw 63%.

Defensor Sporting arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Cerro Largo, L 0-2 @ Cruzeiro, D 1-1 v Boston River, D 0-0 @ Racing Montevideo.

Cerro are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Liverpool Montevideo, L 0-1 v Penarol, L 0-2 @ Cerro Largo, W 1-0 v Central Espanol.

Defensor Sporting hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cerro 1-0 Defensor Sporting.

The market prices DEF at 51% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 8.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 72 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.