Where the market is wrong on Piratas v Venados FC
Piratas meet Venados FC in the Liga de Expansión MX apertura - 9.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Piratas, 56% against 48%. Attacking output favors Venados FC on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.3 per match.
Piratas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Cruz Azul Hidalgo, W 4-1 v Correcaminos Uat, D 1-1 @ Leones Negros UDG, L 0-1 v Cancún.
Venados FC are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 14 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 v Tepatitlán, L 3-4 @ CDS Tampico Madero, L 1-3 @ Tlaxcala, W 4-2 v Dorados.
The market prices PIR at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on Venados FC: a 10.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
