Trefelin v Caernarfon Town

Trefelin meet Caernarfon Town in the Premier League regular season - 4 at Ynys Park, Cwmafan.

The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Trefelin, 65% against 55%. Attacking output favors Trefelin on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 81%, over 2.5 goals around 87%. Draw no bet leans Trefelin at 58%; double chance reads Trefelin or draw 70%, Caernarfon Town or draw 57%.

Trefelin arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 0 scored and 22 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Caernarfon Town, L 0-6 @ GAP Connah S Quay FC, L 0-4 v Llandudno, L 0-2 @ Colwyn Bay.

Caernarfon Town are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Trefelin, W 3-0 v Colwyn Bay, L 1-2 v Penybont, W 2-1 @ GAP Connah S Quay FC.

Caernarfon Town hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Trefelin 0-2 Caernarfon Town.

The market prices TRE at 11% implied. Our number sits apart on Trefelin: a 31.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.