Where the market is wrong on Naestved v Middelfart
Naestved meet Middelfart in the 2. Division regular season - 9.
The baseline ratings are close, 1560 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 61% against 60%. Attacking output favors Middelfart on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Naestved arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Middelfart, D 1-1 @ Fremad Amager, W 3-1 v Thisted FC, D 1-1 @ B 93.
Middelfart are patchy: 0W-5D-0L from their last five (5/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Naestved, D 1-1 v VSK Århus, D 0-0 @ Skive, D 5-5 @ Nykobing FC.
The market prices NAE at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Middelfart: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
