Benfica v Estoril

Benfica meet Estoril in the Primeira Liga regular season - 4 at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon.

Benfica rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1696 to 1400. Recent form leans Benfica, 78% against 30%. Attacking output favors Benfica on expected goals, 2.9 to 0.8 per match.

Benfica arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 16 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Estoril, W 3-1 @ Aarhus, W 3-1 v Aarhus, W 7-0 @ Casa Pia.

Estoril are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 3 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Benfica, L 0-2 v Rio Ave, L 0-2 @ Nacional, D 1-1 v Famalicao.

Benfica hold the recent head-to-head, 9 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Benfica 2-1 Estoril.

The market prices BEN at 86% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 13.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.