Aubagne v Bourg-en-bresse 01

Aubagne meet Bourg-en-bresse 01 in the Ligue 3 regular season - 4 at Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny, Aubagne.

The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1407, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 30% against 34%. Attacking output favors Aubagne on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.7 per match.

Aubagne arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Bourg-en-bresse 01, L 0-1 @ Caen, L 0-1 v Bastia, L 0-3 v Thionville Lusitanos.

Bourg-en-bresse 01 are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 4 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Aubagne, L 0-2 v Thionville Lusitanos, L 0-2 @ Valenciennes, W 3-2 v Villefranche.

Aubagne hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aubagne 2-0 Bourg-en-bresse 01.

The market prices AUB at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.