Where the market is wrong on Lugano II v Bavois
Lugano II meet Bavois in the 1. Liga Promotion regular season - 5.
Bavois rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1420. Recent form leans Bavois, 55% against 38%. Attacking output favors Bavois on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Lugano II arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 11 scored and 17 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Bavois, L 2-5 @ Biel-Bienne, W 4-3 v Luzern II, L 1-3 @ Young Boys II.
Bavois are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Lugano II, D 0-0 v Brühl, L 0-1 @ YF Juventus, L 0-7 v Servette FC.
Lugano II hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Lugano II 3-2 Bavois.
The market prices LUG at 24% implied. Our number sits apart on Lugano II: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
