Where the market is wrong on Sestao River v Atlético Astorga
Sestao River meet Atlético Astorga in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 group 1 - 4 at Estadio Las Llanas, Sestao.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 48%. Attacking output favors Atlético Astorga on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Sestao River arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Atlético Astorga, L 0-2 @ Compostela, W 2-1 @ Comillas, W 2-0 v Real Oviedo II.
Atlético Astorga are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Sestao River, W 3-0 v Marino de Luanco, L 2-3 @ Basconia, L 0-1 v Portugalete.
The market prices SES at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Atlético Astorga: a 11.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
