Raja Casablanca's 2-0 victory over Hassania Agadir was decided by two late goals and a significant statistical discrepancy in shot accuracy, though not in overall control. The home side took 57 per cent of the possession but were outshot on target seven to four across the 90 minutes, a pattern that suggested Agadir had the clearer opportunities. The Lemeister model had given Raja a 45 per cent chance of winning, making the result a narrow confirmation of the pre-match favourite.
The match remained goalless until the 80th minute despite both sides registering 10 total shots. Agadir's seven shots on goal to Raja's four indicated they created the more presentable chances, but their inability to convert proved decisive. Raja's breakthrough came from the penalty spot when A. El Amloud stepped up and scored, giving the hosts the lead without needing to construct an open-play chance. The second goal arrived in the 90th minute, with M. Al Makahasi providing the assist for Y. Iguiz to double the advantage and seal the result.
The underlying numbers show a contest that was closer than the scoreline suggests. Raja's 57 per cent possession was not accompanied by a corresponding dominance in shots, as both teams finished with 10 attempts. Where Raja excelled was in efficiency, converting two of their four shots on target while Agadir failed to score from seven. The home side also took four corners to Agadir's four, further illustrating the parity in territorial terms. The expected goals data, though not provided in the match facts, would likely reflect Agadir's superior shot-on-target count, making Raja's defensive resilience and finishing edge the defining factors.
Discipline played a notable role in the second half. Agadir's Y. Arbidi was booked in the 27th minute, and Raja's A. Barkok followed in the 58th. The turning point came in the 83rd minute when Agadir's H. Et-Tair received a red card, leaving the visitors a man down for the closing stages. H. El Majhad was also cautioned in the 84th minute, while Raja's Y. Iguiz, Shararh and M. Boulacsout all received yellow cards in the final moments of added time, with the match stretching to 101 minutes. The red card fundamentally altered the dynamic, as Agadir had been competitive until that moment, and Raja exploited the numerical advantage to score both goals after the dismissal.
From the available ratings data, no specific player ratings are provided, so analysis of individual performances must rely on the statistical contributions. A. El Amloud's penalty proved the match-winner, while Y. Iguiz added the second goal and later received a yellow card. M. Al Makahasi's assist was the only recorded creative contribution among the listed players, underlining his role in the decisive move. The absence of assists for the penalty highlights that Raja's opening goal came from a set-piece rather than open play. Among the named players, Shararh and M. Boulacsout were both booked, indicating a combative defensive effort to protect the lead.
The result maintains Raja Casablanca's position in the Botola Pro standings with three matches remaining in the regular season. For Hassania Agadir, the defeat, combined with Et-Tair's red card and a poor record of converting shots on target, leaves them needing to improve their finishing and discipline in the run-in. The Lemeister model's projection of a narrow home win proved accurate, with the late goals and red card turning a tight contest into a comfortable scoreline for Raja. The visitors will rue their failure to capitalise on seven shots on target, while Raja demonstrated the ruthlessness required to secure points in a congested title race.
