Swindon Town v Accrington ST

Swindon Town meet Accrington ST in the League Two regular season - 8 at County Ground, Swindon.

The baseline ratings are close, 1432 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 37% against 43%. Attacking output favors Accrington ST on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.

Swindon Town arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 2 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Accrington ST, L 0-2 v Newport County, L 0-1 @ Salford City, L 1-2 v Crystal Palace U21.

Accrington ST are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Swindon Town, D 3-3 v Sunderland U21, D 0-0 v Newport County, L 1-2 @ Barnet.

Accrington ST hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Swindon Town 1-1 Accrington ST.

The market prices SWI at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on Accrington ST: a 7.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.