Stoke City v Charlton

Stoke City meet Charlton in the Championship regular season - 5 at Bet365 Stadium, Stoke on Trent.

The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Charlton, 50% against 38%. Attacking output favors Charlton on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.

Stoke City arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Norwich, L 1-4 @ Wolves, D 1-1 v Hull City, L 1-3 @ Southampton.

Charlton are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Preston, L 1-5 @ Tottenham, W 2-1 @ West Ham, W 2-1 v Derby.

The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Charlton 1-0 Stoke City.

The market prices STO at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Charlton: a 11.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.