Birmingham v Bristol City

Birmingham meet Bristol City in the Championship regular season - 2 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham.

Birmingham rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1569 to 1443. Recent form leans Birmingham, 60% against 43%. Attacking output favors Birmingham on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Birmingham at 56%; double chance reads Birmingham or draw 70%, Bristol City or draw 62%.

Birmingham arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-6 v Brentford, D 2-2 v Bristol City, D 0-0 @ Sheffield Utd, W 1-0 @ Swansea.

Bristol City are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Birmingham, L 0-2 v Millwall, L 0-1 v Walsall, D 1-1 @ Exeter City.

Birmingham hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Birmingham 2-2 Bristol City.

The market prices BIR at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on Bristol City: a 9.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.