Where the market is wrong on Varnsdorf v Jablonec II
Varnsdorf meet Jablonec II in the 3. liga - CFL B group b - 7 at Mestsky stadion v Kotline, Varnsdorf.
The baseline ratings are close, 1565 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 58% against 55%. Attacking output favors Varnsdorf on expected goals, 2.3 to 2.0 per match.
Varnsdorf arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 10 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Jablonec II, L 1-5 v Slavia Praha, D 4-4 @ Sokol Zápy, W 3-1 v Velké Hamry.
Jablonec II are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 13 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Varnsdorf, D 2-2 v Mladá Boleslav II, W 2-0 v Slovan Liberec II, D 1-1 @ Sokol Zápy.
Jablonec II hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Varnsdorf 0-2 Jablonec II.
The market prices VAR at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Jablonec II: a 12.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
