United States advanced to the last 16 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 with a 2-0 victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina at Levi's Stadium, a result that was tighter than the scoreline suggests. The Lemeister model had given the US a 40% chance of winning broadly in line with the eventual outcome, though a red card for F. Balogun just before the hour mark looked set to change the complexion of the contest. The model's projection of a 1-0 home win was nearly accurate, with the second goal arriving only after Balogun's dismissal had forced a prolonged defensive shift.
The opening goal came in first-half stoppage time when Balogun put the US ahead. With no assist recorded, the goal appeared to be a moment of individual quality, and it sent the US into the interval with the lead despite Bosnia and Herzegovina having kept the game relatively even. The second goal arrived in the 82nd minute, scored by M. Tillman, again without an assist, doubling the advantage and effectively sealing the win. Tillman's 8.0 match rating, the highest in the game, reflects his decisive impact as the scorer of what proved to be the clinching goal. His performance stood out in a match where the US created two goals from 10 men for much of the second half, suggesting efficiency in front of goal was a key differentiator.
The match turned decisively in the 64th minute when Balogun received a red card, reducing the US to 10 men. That decision forced a significant tactical shift, yet the US defence and midfield held firm. Alexander Freeman earned a 7.7 rating, indicating he was a key figure in the reshaped structure, while Chris Richards and Weston McKennie both received 7.5, anchoring the team after the dismissal. Tim Ream and Antonee Robinson each finished on 7.3, contributing to a defensive record that kept a clean sheet despite being a man down for the final 26 minutes plus stoppage time. Bosnia and Herzegovina, meanwhile, picked up two yellow cards in the 80th minute, S. Barbarez and S. Radeljic both cautioned, as frustration grew. The away side made five substitutions to the home side's three, an indicator of their attempts to change the game, but they could not find a way through a compact US block.
With no shot, possession or expected goals data available, the narrative is shaped primarily by the player ratings and the structural facts of the game. The US kept a clean sheet while playing with 10 men for over a quarter of the match and created two goals from an unspecified number of opportunities. McKennie's 7.5 suggests he was influential in both phases, while Richards and Ream formed a centre-back pairing that absorbed pressure. Bosnia's inability to score, even against a numerically inferior opponent, points to a lack of cutting edge. No Bosnia player appears in the ratings data, but the two yellow cards in the 80th minute hint at a side that began to resort to fouls as time ran out.
For the United States, this result means progress to the Round of 16, a significant step in a World Cup campaign. Balogun's red card will be a concern for the next round, as his absence could disrupt the attacking balance that produced two goals here. The resilience shown by the midfield and defence, particularly after the dismissal, provides a template for how the US might approach a knockout tie against stronger opposition. Bosnia and Herzegovina exit the tournament after what will be seen as a missed opportunity, especially after Balogun's dismissal created a numerical advantage they could not exploit. The US will now look ahead to the next round, having demonstrated a capacity to win from an unpromising position.
United States 
Bosnia and Herzegovina