Where the market is wrong on Sparta Praha v Zlin
Sparta Praha meet Zlin in the Czech Liga regular season - 2 at epet ARENA, Prague. The model makes Sparta Praha the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% SPA, 28% draw, 30% ZLI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1560 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sparta Praha, 56% against 40%. Attacking output favors Sparta Praha on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 66%, over 2.5 goals around 70%. Draw no bet leans Sparta Praha at 58%; double chance reads Sparta Praha or draw 70%, Zlin or draw 58%.
Sparta Praha arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 9 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Zbrojovka Brno, L 1-5 @ FC Nordsjaelland, L 0-1 @ Jagiellonia, W 3-0 v Gamba Osaka.
Zlin are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Baník Ostrava, L 1-3 @ Slask Wroclaw, W 2-0 @ Polonia Warszawa, W 2-1 v Dukla Banská Bystrica.
The market prices SPA at 77% implied. Our number sits apart on Zlin: a 22.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output