Newcastle v Bournemouth

Newcastle meet Bournemouth in the Premier League regular season - 3 at St. James' Park, Newcastle.

The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Bournemouth, 65% against 45%. Attacking output favors Bournemouth on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.5 per match.

Newcastle arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Tottenham, W 3-2 v West Brom, D 2-2 v Liverpool, D 1-1 v Strasbourg.

Bournemouth are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 15 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Everton, L 1-2 @ Manchester City, L 1-2 @ FSV Mainz 05, D 2-2 @ Real Betis.

Bournemouth hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 6 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth.

The market prices NEW at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Bournemouth: a 17.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.