Brentford v Sunderland

Brentford meet Sunderland in the Premier League regular season - 3 at Brentford Community Stadium, London.

The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 57%. Attacking output favors Brentford on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.4 per match.

Brentford arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 21 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Leeds, W 6-1 @ Birmingham, W 3-0 v Tottenham, W 7-0 v Eintracht Frankfurt.

Sunderland are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Fulham, L 1-2 @ Ipswich, W 2-1 v Rennes, W 2-0 @ Lens.

The market prices BRE at 59% implied. Our number sits apart on Sunderland: a 13.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.