Where the market is wrong on Morton v Dunfermline
Morton meet Dunfermline in the Championship regular season - 7 at Cappielow Park, Greenock.
Dunfermline rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1400. Recent form leans Dunfermline, 57% against 21%. Attacking output favors Dunfermline on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.6 per match.
Morton arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 4 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Dunfermline, L 1-4 v Livingston, L 1-2 @ Queen's Park, D 1-1 @ Ayr Utd.
Dunfermline are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Morton, W 2-0 v Queen's Park, D 1-1 @ Arbroath, W 1-0 v Raith Rovers.
Dunfermline hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Morton 0-1 Dunfermline.
The market prices MOR at 14% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 8.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
