Ayr Utd v Morton

Ayr Utd meet Morton in the Championship regular season - 4 at Somerset Park, Ayr.

Ayr Utd rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1553 to 1400. Recent form leans Ayr Utd, 55% against 21%. Attacking output favors Ayr Utd on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.6 per match.

Ayr Utd arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Morton, L 0-2 @ Raith Rovers, L 2-3 @ Kilmarnock, D 1-1 @ Dunfermline.

Morton are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 2 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Ayr Utd, L 1-2 v Arbroath, L 0-2 @ Stenhousemuir, L 0-1 v Partick.

Ayr Utd hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ayr Utd 1-1 Morton.

The market prices AYR at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.