Lech Poznan v Aarhus

Lech Poznan meet Aarhus in the UEFA Champions League 2nd qualifying round at Stadion Poznan, undefined. The model makes Lech Poznan the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% LEC, 29% draw, 32% AAR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1661 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Lech Poznan, 73% against 63%. Attacking output favors Lech Poznan on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 65%, over 2.5 goals around 65%. Draw no bet leans Lech Poznan at 55%; double chance reads Lech Poznan or draw 68%, Aarhus or draw 61%.

Lech Poznan arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 14 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Cracovia Krakow, W 4-1 @ Aarhus, W 3-1 v Gornik Zabrze, W 4-0 v Bohemians 1905.

Aarhus are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Brondby, L 1-4 v Lech Poznan, W 2-0 v AC Horsens, L 1-2 @ Union St. Gilloise.

Lech Poznan hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aarhus 1-4 Lech Poznan.

The market prices LEC at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on Aarhus: a 10.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.