Étoile Carouge v FC Aarau

Étoile Carouge meet FC Aarau in the Challenge League regular season - 1 at Stade de la Fontenette, Carouge. The model makes FC Aarau the most likely outcome at 49%, with the full read 25% ÉTO, 26% draw, 49% FC .

FC Aarau rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1613 to 1477. Recent form leans FC Aarau, 66% against 45%. Attacking output favors FC Aarau on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 68%, over 2.5 goals around 81%. Draw no bet leans FC Aarau at 66%; double chance reads Étoile Carouge or draw 51%, FC Aarau or draw 75%.

Étoile Carouge arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-5 @ BSC Young Boys, W 2-1 @ Servette FC, L 0-1 @ Lausanne, L 0-1 v Grand-Saconnex.

FC Aarau are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Union Berlin, L 0-1 @ Austria Lustenau, L 1-3 v St. Gallen II, L 1-2 @ Grasshoppers.

FC Aarau hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FC Aarau 1-3 Étoile Carouge.

The market prices ÉTO at 23% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.