Toulouse v Lyon: the model read
Toulouse meet Lyon in the Ligue 1 regular season - 1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse. The model makes Lyon the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 33% TOU, 29% draw, 38% LYO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1492 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 47% against 53%. Attacking output favors Lyon on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 72%, over 2.5 goals around 73%. Draw no bet leans Lyon at 53%; double chance reads Toulouse or draw 62%, Lyon or draw 67%.
Toulouse arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Lyon, W 2-1 @ Strasbourg, D 2-2 v Monaco, L 1-4 @ Lens.
Lyon are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 13 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Slavia Praha, W 2-1 v Servette FC, W 6-3 v FC ST. Gallen, W 5-2 v Mâcon.
Lyon hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Toulouse 2-1 Lyon.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
