Where the market is wrong on PAU v Nancy
PAU meet Nancy in the Ligue 2 regular season - 3 at Nouste Camp, Bizanos.
The baseline ratings are close, 1445 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Nancy, 50% against 39%. Attacking output favors Nancy on expected goals, 1.7 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 67%. Draw no bet leans Nancy at 65%; double chance reads PAU or draw 53%, Nancy or draw 75%.
PAU arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Nancy, W 1-0 @ Dijon, L 0-1 v Annecy, L 1-2 v Real Unión.
Nancy are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 3 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ PAU, L 0-1 v Montpellier, D 0-0 @ Boulogne, D 2-2 v Dijon.
The market prices PAU at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on Nancy: a 13.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
