AZ Alkmaar v NEC Nijmegen: the model read
AZ Alkmaar meet NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie regular season - 16 at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar. The model makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% AZ , 28% draw, 33% NEC.
The baseline ratings are close, 1547 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 58% against 53%. Attacking output favors NEC Nijmegen on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 79%, over 2.5 goals around 82%. Draw no bet leans AZ Alkmaar at 54%; double chance reads AZ Alkmaar or draw 67%, NEC Nijmegen or draw 61%.
AZ Alkmaar arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Zulte Waregem, L 0-1 v Anderlecht, W 2-1 v Almere City FC, D 3-3 v Gent.
NEC Nijmegen are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 15 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 7-0 v Al-Fayha, W 3-1 v V-varen Nagasaki, L 2-3 @ Anderlecht, L 2-3 v MSV Duisburg.
AZ Alkmaar hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: AZ Alkmaar 5-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
