Where the market is wrong on Bologna v Sassuolo
Bologna meet Sassuolo in the Serie A regular season - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 40%. Attacking output favors Sassuolo on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 54%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Sassuolo at 55%; double chance reads Bologna or draw 62%, Sassuolo or draw 69%.
Bologna arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Atalanta, L 0-1 v Lazio, L 0-1 @ Brighton, L 1-4 v Pisa.
Sassuolo are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Torino, L 1-2 @ Atalanta, W 3-0 v Cesena, L 2-3 @ FC Augsburg.
Bologna hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna.
The market prices BOL at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Sassuolo: a 14.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
