Where the market is wrong on Lecce v AS Roma
Lecce meet AS Roma in the Serie A regular season - 2 at Via del Mare, Lecce.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans AS Roma, 60% against 48%. Attacking output favors AS Roma on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 70%. Draw no bet leans AS Roma at 62%; double chance reads Lecce or draw 56%, AS Roma or draw 72%.
Lecce arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v AS Roma, W 2-0 @ Venezia, L 0-2 @ Palermo, W 1-0 v SS Monopoli.
AS Roma are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 14 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 @ Lecce, W 4-0 v Fiorentina, D 2-2 @ Borussia Dortmund, L 0-3 @ Brighton.
AS Roma hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Lecce 0-4 AS Roma.
The market prices LEC at 13% implied. Our number sits apart on Lecce: a 14.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
