Indonesia v Cambodia

Indonesia meet Cambodia in the ASEAN Championship group stage - 2 at Pakansari Stadium, Bogor Regency. The model makes Indonesia the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% IND, 29% draw, 29% CAM.

Indonesia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1541 to 1408. Recent form leans Indonesia, 53% against 35%. Attacking output favors Indonesia on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 67%. Draw no bet leans Indonesia at 59%; double chance reads Indonesia or draw 71%, Cambodia or draw 58%.

Indonesia arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 13 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v Cambodia, W 1-0 v Mozambique, W 3-0 v Oman, L 0-1 v Bulgaria.

Cambodia are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Indonesia, L 1-2 v Singapore, W 2-0 v Hong Kong, W 4-0 v Bhutan.

Indonesia hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 0 across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Indonesia 5-1 Cambodia.

The market prices IND at 84% implied. Our number sits apart on Cambodia: a 23.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.