Myanmar v Malaysia

Myanmar meet Malaysia in the ASEAN Championship group stage - 1 at Thuwunna Youth Training Centre Stadium, Yangon. The model makes Malaysia the most likely outcome at 48%, with the full read 25% MYA, 27% draw, 48% MAL.

Malaysia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1500. Recent form leans Malaysia, 70% against 48%. Attacking output favors Malaysia on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 65%, over 2.5 goals around 78%. Draw no bet leans Malaysia at 66%; double chance reads Myanmar or draw 52%, Malaysia or draw 75%.

Myanmar arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 12 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 @ Philippines, L 1-2 v Malaysia, L 0-4 @ Vietnam, L 1-5 @ Philippines.

Malaysia are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 13 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Laos, W 2-1 @ Myanmar, L 1-3 @ Vietnam, W 1-0 @ Nepal.

Malaysia hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Myanmar 1-2 Malaysia.

The market prices MYA at 17% implied. Our number sits apart on Myanmar: a 8.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.