Mozambique v Ethiopia: the model read
Mozambique meet Ethiopia in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification group stage - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1447, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 32% against 38%. Attacking output favors Ethiopia on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Mozambique arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 5 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Indonesia, L 1-4 @ Oman, L 0-4 @ Nigeria, L 1-2 v Cameroon.
Ethiopia are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Malawi, W 1-0 v Malawi, W 1-0 v Sao Tome and Principe, W 3-0 @ Sao Tome and Principe.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2023: Ethiopia 0-0 Mozambique.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
