Badajoz defeated Jaraíz 2-0 in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 semi-finals, a result that the Lemeister model had anticipated with a narrow home victory. The model gave Badajoz a 46 per cent win probability before kick-off, projecting a 1-0 scoreline, and the final margin exceeded that forecast by one goal. The home side's clean sheet and two-goal haul were sufficient to progress without needing any statistical detail to confirm dominance, though the absence of match data limits deeper tactical analysis.
The opening goal arrived in the 35th minute when C. Bravo found the net for Badajoz. This was a normal goal with no recorded assist, meaning the scorer was solely responsible for the finish. That strike gave the home side the lead just before half-time, a crucial moment that allowed Badajoz to control the tempo after the interval. The match remained tight until the 81st minute, when J. Bermudez converted a penalty to double the advantage. The penalty award itself is not detailed in the data, but the conversion effectively secured the victory and removed any lingering doubt about the outcome.
No cards were issued in the match, suggesting a contest that was competitive but not fractious. Neither side made any substitutions, indicating that both managers trusted their starting line-ups to see out the full 90 minutes. This is notable in a semi-final context, where tactical changes are often employed to influence the result. The absence of bookings also implies that the match was not decided by disciplinary incidents, but rather by the two goals scored by the nameable players.
The two scorers were the only nameable players on the pitch. C. Bravo's goal in the first half was the crucial breakthrough, giving Badajoz the platform to control the encounter from a position of strength. J. Bermudez's second-half penalty provided the insurance goal, removing any lingering doubt about the outcome. The fact that Badajoz's goals came from two different players points to a multiple threat that Jaraíz were unable to contain fully. Without detailed match statistics, it is impossible to assess possession, shots, expected goals, or passing, but the clean sheet for Badajoz is a notable achievement in a semi-final, as is Jaraíz's failure to score.
From the model's perspective, Badajoz were the deserved winners. The 46 per cent pre-match win probability, while not overwhelming, identified them as the team more likely to progress. The actual scoreline of 2-0 was more emphatic than the projected 1-0, but the model's fundamental assessment of a home victory was proven correct. Jaraíz, given a 24 per cent chance of winning, were unable to produce the upset. The Lemeister model's read was accurate in direction, if not in exact margin, reflecting the home side's ability to deliver on their favourite status.
This result means Badajoz advance from the semi-finals of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14. They will now look to the next round with the confidence of having kept a clean sheet and scored twice against a Jaraíz side that, while competitive, could not find a response. The absence of statistical data prevents a deeper tactical breakdown, but the clean sheet and two-goal performance suggest a solid defensive foundation and an ability to score from open play and from the penalty spot. Jaraíz, having failed to score, will reflect on a missed opportunity to progress further in the competition. The Lemeister model's forecast of a narrow home win proved accurate in its direction, and Badajoz will hope to maintain this momentum as they pursue promotion.
