Bayern Munich Women won the DFB Pokal final with a 4-0 victory over VfL Wolfsburg Women, a result that was ultimately decided by a first-half penalty and a dominant second-half display. The scoreline closely matched the pre-match projection from the Lemeister model, which had forecast a 3-0 away win and given Bayern a 57 per cent chance of victory compared to Wolfsburg's 19 per cent.
The decisive moment arrived just before half-time, in the 45th minute, when G. Stanway converted a penalty to give Bayern the lead. That goal changed the complexion of the match, forcing Wolfsburg to commit more players forward after the interval and creating space for Bayern to exploit. The pattern of the game was defined by Bayern's ability to control the flow after the break, and the statistics underline why the scoreline became so one-sided. Bayern's second goal came in the 59th minute, when P. Harder scored from a chance created by M. Eriksson's assist, doubling the lead and putting Wolfsburg in a difficult position. The third goal followed in the 77th minute, as M. Tanikawa found the net with help from K. Buhl, effectively sealing the match with more than ten minutes remaining. A. Caruso added a fourth in the 84th minute to round off a dominant attacking display.
The statistical narrative supports the lopsided result. The Lemeister model had projected Bayern to score three goals, but the actual total of four suggests that Wolfsburg's approach after going behind allowed Bayern to create additional opportunities. The absence of any cards indicates a disciplined contest, but one in which Wolfsburg were outplayed in the key moments. Both teams made five substitutions, but those changes did not alter the trajectory of the game. Bayern controlled the midfield and created the more dangerous chances, while Wolfsburg struggled to find a rhythm in attack.
Among the named players, G. Stanway's penalty was the match's pivotal moment, giving Bayern a lead that Wolfsburg never looked likely to overturn. P. Harder's goal in the 59th minute demonstrated her timing in the box, while M. Eriksson's assist showed her ability to deliver from deeper positions. K. Buhl's contribution to M. Tanikawa's goal highlighted the combination play on the flanks, and A. Caruso's late strike added a gloss that the performance had already earned. The match ratings would likely reflect the influence of these players, with Stanway and Harder central to the scoring, Eriksson providing key service, and Buhl and Tanikawa combining effectively to stretch the Wolfsburg defence.
Wolfsburg, for their part, lacked the attacking potency to trouble Bayern's defence consistently. They were unable to create enough quality chances to test the opposition goalkeeper, and their possession, if it was dominant, did not translate into meaningful shots on target. The absence of any goal-scoring opportunities from Wolfsburg in the match data suggests that Bayern's defensive organisation and pressing were effective in limiting the opposition's threat.
This result gives Bayern Munich Women the DFB Pokal title for the season, adding to their domestic pedigree and confirming their superiority over Wolfsburg in the final. For Wolfsburg, the defeat ends their hopes of silverware from this competition and will require reflection on how they were unable to match Bayern's intensity and efficiency in the final third. The Lemeister model's pre-match assessment, which projected a 3-0 away win, proved prescient, with Bayern exceeding even that expectation by one goal in a display that demonstrated their clinical edge on the day. The margin of victory, across both the scoreline and the underlying statistics, leaves little doubt about which team was the more effective in the decisive moments of the match.
