Botafogo defeated Bangu 3-1 in the Carioca final at the Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, a result that owed more to clinical finishing than overall dominance. The hosts scored three times from four shots on target, while Bangu created more chances but lacked the final edge. The Lemeister model had given Botafogo a 40% chance of winning, making them marginal favourites, and they delivered on that projection, though the data suggests a closer contest than the final scoreline indicates.
Botafogo took the lead in the 17th minute when Edenilson scored, with Arthur Cabral providing the assist. They doubled their advantage six minutes into the second half through Caio Valle, assisted by L. M. Villalba Jaume. The defining moment arrived in the 58th minute when J. Correa converted a penalty to make it 3-0. Bangu pulled one back in the 74th minute through Luizinho, assisted by Welington Zaru, but could not reduce the deficit further despite sustained pressure.
The statistical picture tells a clear story of a match Bangu controlled in terms of volume but lost on efficiency. Bangu had 54% possession, attempted 15 shots to Botafogo's 10, and earned 10 corner kicks to Botafogo's four. Their expected goals total of 1.49 was not far behind Botafogo's 1.69, indicating similar quality of chances. However, Bangu put only three of their 15 shots on target, with the Botafogo goalkeeper making two saves, while Botafogo placed four of their 10 attempts on frame and scored three times. The away side also committed 13 fouls and collected two yellow cards, the first to Kadu in the 10th minute and the second to Welington Zarú in stoppage time.
The passing statistics underline a marginal but meaningful difference in precision. Botafogo completed 334 of 395 passes at an 85% accuracy rate, while Bangu completed 375 of 450 passes at 83%. The home side's slightly higher efficiency in possession helped them create fewer but more dangerous opportunities; they recorded eight shots inside the box and two from outside, while Bangu had 11 inside and four outside, suggesting Botafogo were more selective and ruthless in dangerous areas. Bangu's 10 corner kicks and higher shot volume reflect territorial dominance, but their failure to convert more of those set pieces and shots into high-quality chances allowed Botafogo to maintain control.
The player ratings highlight the individuals who made the difference. J. Correa was the outstanding performer with a rating of 8.9, his penalty completing Botafogo's scoring and providing a decisive margin. Edenilson, who opened the scoring, earned an 8.0, reflecting his clinical contribution in the first half. Caio Valle was rated 7.5, while Raúl and Kadu Santos both finished on 7.3, each playing a steady role in the midfield and defense. For Bangu, Luizinho was the top-rated player at 7.6 for his consolation goal, a bright spot in an otherwise frustrating attacking display.
The result secures the Carioca title for Botafogo, confirming their status as the best team in the state competition despite Bangu's spirited performance and statistical parity in many key metrics. Botafogo's ability to convert chances at critical moments, particularly the penalty that extended the lead to three goals, proved decisive. Bangu will reflect on a strong overall performance, particularly in possession and set-piece situations, but their lack of clinical finishing, with only three shots on target from 15 attempts, ultimately cost them the trophy. For Botafogo, the victory validates their status as marginal pre-match favourites according to the Lemeister model, and their 1.69 expected goals output suggests the margin of victory was not flattering, even if Bangu could consider themselves unfortunate not to have scored more.
