Criciuma v Fortaleza EC

Criciuma meet Fortaleza EC in the Serie B regular season - 24 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Criciúma.

The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Criciuma, 68% against 55%. Attacking output favors Fortaleza EC on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 19%. Draw no bet leans Criciuma at 54%; double chance reads Criciuma or draw 70%, Fortaleza EC or draw 65%.

Criciuma arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 2 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Fortaleza EC, D 1-1 @ Botafogo SP, W 1-0 v Goias, L 0-2 @ Athletic Club.

Fortaleza EC are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Criciuma, D 1-1 v São Bernardo, D 0-0 @ Juventude, D 1-1 @ Cuiaba.

Fortaleza EC hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Criciuma 0-2 Fortaleza EC.

The market prices CRI at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Fortaleza EC: a 7.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.