Retrô v Sport Recife: the model read
Retrô meet Sport Recife in the Pernambucano - 1 semi-finals at Arena Pernambuco, undefined. The model makes Sport Recife the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 31% RET, 32% draw, 37% SPO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 55%. Attacking output favors Retrô on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Sport Recife at 54%; double chance reads Retrô or draw 63%, Sport Recife or draw 69%.
Retrô arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Treze, D 0-0 @ Serra Branca, D 1-1 v Lagarto, W 2-1 v Decisão.
Sport Recife are patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Cuiaba, D 1-1 @ Goias, D 2-2 v Operario-PR, D 3-3 v Botafogo SP.
Sport Recife hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sport Recife 3-0 Retrô.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
