Where the market is wrong on Aucas v Libertad
Aucas meet Libertad in the Liga Pro regular season - 27 at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 53%. Attacking output favors Aucas on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.1 per match.
Aucas arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 3 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Universidad Catolica, W 1-0 v Libertad, L 0-1 @ LDU de Quito, W 1-0 @ Delfin SC.
Libertad are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Emelec, L 0-1 @ Aucas, W 1-0 v Macara, D 2-2 @ Guayaquil City FC.
Libertad hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aucas 1-0 Libertad.
The market prices AUC at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Libertad: a 16.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output