Barcelona SC secured a 3-0 win over Aucas at the Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha, a result their underlying numbers fully supported. Although they conceded the majority of possession, the home side’s greater efficiency in front of goal and a superior expected goals figure of 2.64 to 1.07 show this was a comfortable victory earned through ruthless finishing. The Lemeister model had favoured the away side with a 38 per cent win probability, making this outcome a clear upset by the data.
The opening goal arrived in the 20th minute from the penalty spot, converted by J. R. Quinonez Ruiz. The spot-kick gave Barcelona SC a lead they never looked like relinquishing. Aucas responded with attempts of their own, managing 12 total shots to Barcelona’s 14, but only two tested the goalkeeper, who made two saves. The home side’s defence remained organised, restricting the visitors to seven shots from inside the box compared to 11 of their own. The scoreline remained 1-0 at the break.
The second half followed a similar pattern: Barcelona SC absorbing pressure and striking on the counter. In the 79th minute, S. Nunez doubled the lead, with C. Montano providing the assist. The goal came from open play and effectively ended any hope of an Aucas fightback. Deep into stoppage time, in the 90th minute, M. Celiz added a third, assisted by T. Martinez, putting the result beyond doubt. The home side’s three goals came from just four shots on target, underlining their clinical edge.
Possession statistics tell a story of Aucas dominance without incision, holding 66 per cent of the ball and completing 542 of 627 passes at 86 per cent accuracy. Barcelona, by contrast, managed just 34 per cent possession and 226 accurate passes from 312 attempts, a 72 per cent success rate. The visitors attempted five corner kicks to Barcelona’s one but could not convert territorial control into clear-cut chances. Barcelona were more direct, posting 11 shots from inside the penalty area to Aucas’ seven.
Individual performances were led by M. Celiz, who earned a match rating of 9.2 after scoring the third goal and featuring prominently throughout. José Contreras, Bryan Carabalí and Jhonny Quiñónez all registered ratings of 7.5 or above, reflecting solid contributions across the pitch. Sergio Núñez and Jean Carlos Montaño both received 7.3, with Núñez also finding the net. The defensive unit, including the goalkeeper, kept a clean sheet despite facing 12 shots, a disciplined collective effort.
Discipline was an even factor, with both teams receiving two yellow cards. Alex Zova of Aucas was booked in the 22nd minute, and Luis Cano followed for Barcelona in the 40th. Andres Mena was cautioned for the visitors just before half-time, and Matias Lugo saw yellow for the home side in the 64th minute. Substitutions were more frequent for Barcelona, who made five changes to Aucas’ two.
The result lifts Barcelona SC in the Liga Pro regular season standings, providing a significant boost in their pursuit of a strong finishing position. For Aucas, the defeat is a missed opportunity against a direct rival, especially given their pre-match favouritism according to the model. The gap in efficiency in both boxes decided a contest that was statistically tighter than the final margin suggests.
