Where the market is wrong on KPV-j v SalPa
KPV-j meet SalPa in the Ykkönen group stage at Kokkolan keskuskentta, Kokkola. The model makes SalPa the most likely outcome at 56%, with the full read 20% KPV, 24% draw, 56% SAL.
SalPa rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1400. Recent form leans SalPa, 65% against 25%. Attacking output favors SalPa on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 88%. Draw no bet leans SalPa at 74%; double chance reads KPV-j or draw 44%, SalPa or draw 80%.
KPV-j arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ OLS, D 1-1 v Rops, L 1-3 v TPV, W 1-0 @ FC jazz.
SalPa are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v PKKU, W 2-1 @ Inter Turku II, W 1-0 @ Tampere United, D 2-2 v VJS.
SalPa hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: SalPa 6-0 KPV-j.
The market prices KPV at 15% implied. Our number sits apart on KPV-j: a 4.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
