Where the market is wrong on Xorazm v Qizilqum
Xorazm meet Qizilqum in the Super League regular season - 22 at Xorazm Stadium, Urgench.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Qizilqum, 45% against 33%. Attacking output favors Qizilqum on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Xorazm arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 2 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Qizilqum, L 1-2 @ Olmaliq, D 0-0 v Sogdiana, L 0-1 @ Olmaliq.
Qizilqum are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Xorazm, L 0-1 @ Dinamo Samarqand, W 3-2 v Buxoro, W 1-0 v Nasaf.
Qizilqum hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Xorazm 1-3 Qizilqum.
The market prices XOR at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Qizilqum: a 11.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
