Buxoro v Neftchi

Buxoro meet Neftchi in the Super League regular season - 18 at Buxoro FA Stadioni, Bukhara.

The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1707, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Neftchi, 78% against 65%. Attacking output favors Neftchi on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Neftchi at 62%; double chance reads Buxoro or draw 57%, Neftchi or draw 74%.

Buxoro arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Neftchi, W 2-0 v Olmaliq, D 2-2 @ Pakhtakor, W 2-1 v Lokomotiv.

Neftchi are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Sogdiana, L 1-4 @ Buxoro, W 3-0 @ Andijan, W 5-0 v Qizilqum.

Buxoro hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Buxoro 4-1 Neftchi.

The market prices BUX at 17% implied. Our number sits apart on Buxoro: a 9.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.