Where the market is wrong on FK Liepaja v Grobiņa
FK Liepaja meet Grobiņa in the Virsliga regular season - 27 at Daugavas stadions, undefined.
FK Liepaja rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1400. Recent form leans FK Liepaja, 53% against 30%. Attacking output favors FK Liepaja on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans FK Liepaja at 68%; double chance reads FK Liepaja or draw 77%, Grobiņa or draw 51%.
FK Liepaja arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Grobiņa, W 2-1 @ Super Nova, L 1-2 @ Tukums, L 1-3 @ Austria Vienna.
Grobiņa are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 6 scored and 18 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ FK Liepaja, L 2-3 @ Auda, L 1-6 @ Rīgas FS, L 0-4 @ Riga.
FK Liepaja hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FK Liepaja 3-1 Grobiņa.
The market prices FK at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Grobiņa: a 7.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
