Riga v Grobiņa

Riga meet Grobiņa in the Virsliga regular season - 25 at Skonto stadions, Riga. The model makes Riga the most likely outcome at 65%, with the full read 65% RIG, 21% draw, 14% GRO.

Riga rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1795 to 1400. Recent form leans Riga, 89% against 35%. Attacking output favors Riga on expected goals, 2.6 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 35%, over 2.5 goals around 82%. Draw no bet leans Riga at 82%; double chance reads Riga or draw 86%, Grobiņa or draw 35%.

Riga arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 17 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 5-2 v Vardar Skopje, W 3-2 @ Vardar Skopje, W 3-1 v Tukums, W 3-2 v Ararat-Armenia.

Grobiņa are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Ogre United, L 0-2 @ Super Nova, W 1-0 @ Mārupe, W 3-1 v Tukums.

Riga hold the recent head-to-head, 9 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Riga 2-0 Grobiņa.

The market prices RIG at 81% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 8.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.