Tukums v FK Liepaja

Tukums meet FK Liepaja in the Virsliga regular season - 25 at Daugavas stadions, Tukums. The model makes FK Liepaja the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 32% TUK, 29% draw, 39% FK .

FK Liepaja rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1523 to 1400. Recent form leans FK Liepaja, 50% against 28%. Attacking output favors Tukums on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 68%, over 2.5 goals around 70%. Draw no bet leans FK Liepaja at 55%; double chance reads Tukums or draw 61%, FK Liepaja or draw 68%.

Tukums arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 4 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Rīgas FS, L 1-3 @ Riga, L 1-2 v Super Nova, L 1-3 @ Grobiņa.

FK Liepaja are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ FS Jelgava, L 0-2 v Austria Vienna, W 2-1 @ Dečić, L 0-1 @ Auda.

FK Liepaja hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FK Liepaja 3-0 Tukums.

The market prices TUK at 26% implied. Our number sits apart on Tukums: a 6.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.