UCV Moquegua and ADT shared the points in a 2-2 draw at the Estadio 25 de Noviembre, a result that the Lemeister model had considered finely balanced with a 36-per-cent likelihood of an away win, a 32-per-cent chance of a home win and a 32-per-cent chance of a draw. The scoreline, however, tells only part of a contest defined by late drama and a significant swing in momentum after the interval.
UCV took the lead in the 21st minute when J. Collazos found the net, with the assist credited to E. Lastre. That goal stood as the only breakthrough of a first half in which the home side appeared to have the better of the territorial battle, though the data for shots, possession and expected goals remains absent from the available information. ADT’s John Narváez was booked in the 34th minute, and UCV’s Edgar Lastre followed him into the referee’s notebook eight minutes later, signalling a contest that was growing increasingly physical.
The second half began with ADT level. Just two minutes after the restart, J. Rojas scored a normal goal to make it 1-1, with no assist recorded. That strike appeared to shift the balance of the contest. UCV’s Ricardo Chipao was cautioned in the 58th minute as the visitors began to assert themselves. ADT then took the lead in the 90th minute when L. Gomez scored, again without an assist, putting the away side 2-1 ahead with what looked like a winning goal deep into stoppage time.
However, UCV were awarded a penalty in the same minute of added time. Bryan Angulo stepped up and converted from the spot to make it 2-2, rescuing a point for the home side. The late equaliser triggered a flurry of yellow cards. UCV’s Yorman Zapata was booked in the 90th minute, as were ADT’s Víctor Cedrón and, later in additional time, Luis Gomez and Jhair Soto. In total, eight cautions were issued across the match, four to each side, illustrating the fractious nature of the closing stages.
Without detailed statistics for shots, expected goals or passing accuracy, the narrative is necessarily anchored in the timing of the goals and the disciplinary record, which indicates a contest that became increasingly stretched and combative as the second half wore on. UCV’s failure to maintain their first-half lead, combined with ADT’s inability to see out the win after taking a 2-1 lead in the 90th minute, suggests both sides will feel they let an opportunity slip.
In the context of the Apertura table, a draw represents a modest return for both teams. UCV will be relieved to have salvaged a point at home after trailing so late, but the underlying pattern of conceding twice in the second half, particularly the equaliser within two minutes of the restart, raises questions about their concentration. ADT, for their part, will rue the late penalty that turned three points into one, especially after seizing control of the game after half-time. The Lemeister model’s pre-match read of a slight advantage to the away side proved close to the mark, though neither team could fully capitalise on the moments that mattered most.
