Where the market is wrong on Stenungsund v Skara
Stenungsund meet Skara in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland norra götaland - 15. The model makes Skara the most likely outcome at 50%, with the full read 24% STE, 26% draw, 50% SKA.
Skara rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1696 to 1400. Recent form leans Skara, 78% against 33%. Attacking output favors Skara on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 79%. Draw no bet leans Skara at 68%; double chance reads Stenungsund or draw 50%, Skara or draw 76%.
Stenungsund arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Trollhättan, L 0-3 v Utsikten, L 0-1 @ Vänersborgs IF, W 4-2 @ Vänersborgs FK.
Skara are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 11 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Herrestads, D 1-1 @ Ahlafors, W 4-2 v Lidköping, W 3-1 @ Vänersborgs FK.
The market prices STE at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on Skara: a 7.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 73 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output