Vietnam U23 v Korea Republic U23

Vietnam U23 and Korea Republic U23 played out a 2-2 draw in the third-place match of the AFC U23 Asian Cup in Jeddah, with the game decided by a late equaliser from the Koreans after Vietnam had taken the lead twice. The statistics show a contest that was extremely finely balanced, with the result defying the Lemeister model's pre-match expectation of a narrow Korea Republic victory.

The opening goal arrived in the 30th minute when Nguyen Quoc Viet found the net for Vietnam, with Nguyen Dinh Bac providing the assist. This gave Vietnam a platform to defend, and they held that lead until midway through the second half. Korea Republic's response came in the 69th minute, T. Kim scoring from an assist by Kim Do-Hyun to level the scores. However, Vietnam struck back almost immediately, Nguyen Dinh Bac scoring himself two minutes later in the 71st minute to restore his side's advantage.

The game took a decisive turn in the closing stages. With four minutes of normal time remaining, Nguyen Dinh Bac was shown a red card in the 86th minute, reducing Vietnam to ten men. The Koreans capitalised on their numerical advantage, and Shin Min-Ha scored the equaliser in the 90th minute, assisted by Lee Hyun-Yong, to force extra time. The match ended 2-2 after 120 minutes, with Korea Republic prevailing on penalties to secure third place.

The underlying statistics paint a picture of a match where both sides had similar levels of control and threat. Possession was split almost exactly evenly, with Vietnam holding 51% and Korea Republic 49%. The shots count was identical at 11 each, but Korea Republic had a slight edge in shots on target, registering six to Vietnam's four. Expected goals were similarly tight, with Korea Republic at 1.9 compared to Vietnam's 1.7, reflecting the narrow margins that separated the two teams.

Passing accuracy was also remarkably close, Vietnam completing 81% of their passes to Korea Republic's 82%. Both sides recorded four corners each, and the discipline stats show Vietnam committing 11 fouls to Korea Republic's eight. The notable difference came in the card count, with Vietnam's red card proving costly, while Korea Republic received one yellow card to Vietnam's two.

Player ratings reflect the individual contributions that shaped the result. Nguyen Dinh Bac, despite his red card, was given a rating of 7.5 for his goal and assist before his dismissal. Shin Min-Ha, who scored the crucial late equaliser and then converted in the shootout, earned the highest rating of 7.8. Nguyen Quoc Viet, the opening goalscorer, was rated 7.3. Kim Do-Hyun and Lee Hyun-Yong, who provided assists for Korea Republic's two goals, were rated 7.1 and 6.9 respectively. T. Kim, the first Korean goalscorer, received a 7.0.

The result means Korea Republic claim third place in the AFC U23 Asian Cup, while Vietnam finish fourth. The Lemeister model had given Korea Republic a 36% chance of winning in normal time, with the draw rated at 31% and Vietnam's prospects at 33%. The actual outcome was a draw, which was always a plausible result given the statistical parity between the two sides on the day.