Trelleborg v Lund

Trelleborg meet Lund in the Ettan - Södra södra - 15. The model makes Trelleborg the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% TRE, 29% draw, 31% LUN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1624 to 1541, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Trelleborg, 69% against 55%. Attacking output favors Trelleborg on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.7 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans Trelleborg at 57%; double chance reads Trelleborg or draw 69%, Lund or draw 60%.

Trelleborg arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Al Diriyah, D 0-0 @ Kristianstad, W 3-2 v Rosengård, W 2-0 @ Hässleholms IF.

Lund are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Skövde AIK, D 0-0 @ Jonkopings Sodra, L 1-4 v AFC Malmo, D 1-1 @ Kristianstad.

Trelleborg hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Lund 2-3 Trelleborg.

The market prices TRE at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on Lund: a 9.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.