Where the market is wrong on Fénix v Yupanqui
Fénix meet Yupanqui in the Primera C regular season - 21. The model makes Yupanqui the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 28% FÉN, 35% draw, 36% YUP.
The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Yupanqui, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors Yupanqui on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 23%, over 2.5 goals around 16%. Draw no bet leans Yupanqui at 56%; double chance reads Fénix or draw 64%, Yupanqui or draw 72%.
Fénix arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Yupanqui, W 1-0 @ Puerto Nuevo, W 2-1 v Sportivo Barracas, L 1-2 @ Lujan.
Yupanqui are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Fénix, D 1-1 v Argentino Rosario, L 0-1 v Deportivo Muñiz, W 3-2 @ Sportivo Barracas.
The market prices FÉN at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on Yupanqui: a 3.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 61 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
