Al Ula edged Al-Raed 2-1 at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, a result that the Lemeister model had favoured, giving the hosts a 42 per cent win probability and projecting a 2-1 scoreline exactly. The match was decided by two first-half yellow cards that set the tone for a physical contest, by the clinical conversion of a penalty either side of half-time, and by a swift response from C. Guanca that proved decisive after Al-Raed had drawn level.
The opening goal arrived four minutes before the interval. E. Koulouris stepped up to convert a penalty in the 41st minute, giving Al Ula a lead they carried into the break. That advantage did not last long into the second half. Al-Raed were also awarded a spot kick in the 67th minute, and Z. Gano made no mistake from 12 yards to restore parity. However, Al Ula struck back immediately. Just two minutes later, in the 69th minute, C. Guanca found the net with a normal goal, assisted by A. Al Khulaif, to put the home side back in front for good.
The game was a scrappy, high-discipline affair. Al-Raed collected five yellow cards, with Z. Gano booked as early as the sixth minute, Y. Bouzok cautioned before half-time, M. Al Dossary in the 47th minute, and A. Al Yousif in the 71st minute. Al Ula received only one booking, A. Razzaq in the 59th minute. That imbalance in discipline reflected a match in which Al-Raed’s aggressive approach ultimately failed to yield a second equaliser.
The three substitutions made by Al Ula compared with two from Al-Raed suggest the home side had more options to manage the closing stages. Neither the comprehensive match statistics nor the player ratings were available in the reporting data, so analysis of territorial control and individual performances is limited to the events that did occur. The decisive moments were the two penalty awards and the quickfire goal from Guanca, which Al Ula defended stoutly over the final 20 minutes, preserving their slender lead without further alarms.
Z. Gano’s evening was mixed. He scored his side’s only goal from the penalty spot but also collected an early yellow card that left him walking a tightrope for the remainder of the match. For Al Ula, Koulouris and Guanca both delivered in the defining moments, and Al Khulaif’s assist for Guanca’s strike proved pivotal. The discipline of Al-Raed’s back line, with three cautions among defenders and midfielders, suggested a side that struggled to contain Al Ula’s attacking threats without resorting to fouls.
In the context of Division 1’s Regular Season round 32, this result gives Al Ula a vital three points at home. The victory keeps them in contention at the right end of the table, while Al-Raed will rue the inability to hold on after their equaliser. The Lemeister model’s projection of a home win, backed by a 42 per cent probability, was borne out by the narrow margin of victory. Al Ula will take confidence from their resilience in responding immediately to conceding, while Al-Raed must address their disciplinary issues if they are to avoid similar setbacks in their remaining fixtures.
